You would think there's enough real statistics about our current misfortunes that no one would need to make up worse ones.  You would be wrong.  Yesterday, in kicking off his healthcare reform campaign, Obama slung this doozy:  "The cost of health care now causes a bankruptcy in America every thirty seconds."  (Speech text here.)  A few seconds' calculation is enough to cast serious doubt on this one; yet most people will accept it without a blink, except to feel the intended emotional jolt of surprise and horror at the social injustice -- which is exactly what Obama needs you to feel, to set up the rest of his speech.  So I was delighted to read an unusually thorough and clear explanation of why this statistic is wildly exaggerated -- and more surprising yet, it's from mainstream outlet ABC, to give credit where due.  This is a perfect opportunity for me to detour from my in-progress series of articles to highlight this concrete example of the Right-Thinking principles I'm talking about.  So here is our first category of Wrong-Thinking.

Crimes Against Truth:  Bad Statistics

In the ABC article referenced above, they describe the following convolutions taken to get the "once every thirty seconds" number:

• The data is several years old, before there was a sharp drop in bankruptcies due to changes in federal law.
• They include all bankruptcies where medical bills was given as a cause (among a list of causes), not the primary cause.
• Beyond the above, they added anyone with more than $1,000 in unpaid medical bills at the time of bankruptcy.
• And my favorite, they consider the death of a wage-earning spouse (even if they get hit by a bus) as a "medical" reason!

If you read my first post which defined the goals of this blog," you saw the trio of categories I use to define Right Thinking:  Truth, Sound Reasoning, and Values.  My examples will always fall into one of these three.  This example from Obama is clearly an abuse of Truth -- a type of abuse so common that its description has entered the popular language:  "lies, damned lies, and statistics."

There is a widespread suspicion of statistics, which is well-founded.  I agree that both Republicans and Democrats are frequently guilty in this area.  However, I would argue that statistics abuse is especially rampant among liberals -- indeed, "social crisis statistics" are an essential part of the liberal's tool chest, because many liberal factions are tightly tied to "advocacy" politics based on proving the existence of some horrible situation in order to get a mandate to fix it.

The problem is, as suspicious as most people are, they've never been given the tools to tell a good statistic from a bad one.  So they can never defend or repudiate a suspect assertion -- and thus have to revert back to their emotion-based like or dislike of the person giving the speech.  What we need is simply a basic understanding of how statistics are formed, and what questions to ask to determine if a statistic is valid or not.  Not a math degree -- just some basic tips.

And here it is:  This article by Joel Best, "Telling the Truth About Damned Lies and Statistics," gives delightful examples (including the worst social statistic of all time) and describes a thoughtful commonsense approach the reader can take to evaluate statistics in the media.  The most important point is just to ask some simple questions.  Obama's medical bankruptcy number is a great example where some basic questioning can expose a statistic as poorly defined and exaggerated to try to prove a desired point.   Some of the types of questions it's important to ask of any statistic include:

• How is the category defined?  (Obama's medical-caused bankruptcies is a case in point)
• What's the source of the numbers?  (e.g. police statistics vs. self-surveys)
• Were the numbers generated by someone with an agenda?
• Are there estimates involved?  How were the estimates made?
• Does the statistic mesh with common sense and our understanding of the world?
  

If this topic and Joel Best's article excites you and you want to delve deeper, I highly recommend his full book on the topic that the above article is drawn from:  Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists."  It's a practical toolkit to help the average thoughtful adult evaluate what you hear, and is chock-full of examples.

America's True Crisis

I think we all agree that there's a real crisis facing America today – but I submit to you that it's not the one you think.  Despite the endless discussions in the media, our crisis is not really the economy.  Not the job losses, not the stock market, not the banking bailouts.  Neither is it energy policy, nor healthcare, nor any of the other issues du jour.  No, these issues, although important in themselves, are only the symptoms of the real crisis – the one that underlies and exacerbates all the others.

The real crisis is more silent and subtle.  You haven't seen it talked about on the news, or read about it in the newspapers. As Rush stated in his recent CPAC appearance, our crisis is not an issue of policy.  But I submit that neither is it an issue of the right candidate, or of clear elucidation of principles, which were his emphasis. Rather, it is an even more fundamental issue – the foundation upon which principles must be built – and it makes all other discussion irrelevant until it is fixed.

The crisis, simply stated, is this:  Americans don't know what to think, because Americans don't know how to think.  Public discussions and debates today are stuck in eternal bickering and petty rhetorical gamesmanship because there is a gaping hole – a shocking, drive-a-semi-through-it sized hole – in the ability of the average American to think clearly and critically.  That is, most people are unable to critically analyze what they hear from politicians, the media, or their friends, in any significant way.  Given any particular statement by a speaker, they cannot identify the assumptions that necessarily lie behind it, nor the implications that must follow from it.  It doesn't occur to them to question the truth of an argument's premises, nor can they identify flaws or fallacies in a speaker's logic.  They don't know how to ask probing questions that get beyond the most rudimentary rhetorical generalizations and evasions.  And in the absence of these skills, their decision-making process is guided by emotionalism rather than a desire for the truth.   And this is what makes our current situation so incredibly perilous.

This crisis – our collective inability to think critically – is truly at the core of America's problems. I believe it must be tackled first, before victory can ever come from a clear elucidation of principles.  Try this mental exercise:  for the next 24 hours, in every news story or radio show you encounter, stop focusing your attention on the "issue" being discussed and start focusing on the way in which it is discussed.  It will become quickly and shockingly clear that America is not going to be fixed by clear and coherent arguments.  The lack of "right thinking" is the best and only explanation for how a silver-tongued Pied Piper could lead an enchanted public down the road to their enslavement with a simple, pretty tune that is utterly devoid of content.  It is why whatever chorus still exists of clear conservative voices – people like Rush and Newt – fail to wake the masses from their stupor.

Quote of the millenium

I came across the most amazing quote recently.  It is worth reading every word – it sums up our current situation more concisely and powerfully than I could ever hope to.  See if you can guess who said it, and when:

"Everywhere we encounter nothing but faulty minds, who have practically no ability to discern the truth.  They view everything from the wrong angle; they are satisfied by the worst reasons and want to satisfy others with them.  They let themselves be carried away by the slightest appearances; they are always in excess and extremes; they have no grasp for holding firmly to the truths they know because they are attached to them more by chance than solid enlightenment.  Or else they insist on nonsense with such obstinacy that they hear nothing that could set them straight.  They decide boldly about what they do not know, what they do not understand, and what perhaps no one has ever understood.  They fail to distinguish one statement from another, or they judge the truth of things only by the tone of one's voice:  whoever speaks easily and soberly is right; anyone who has some trouble explaining himself or who exhibits some passion is wrong.  This is all they know.
    This is why there are no absurdities so unacceptable that they do not find approval.  Anyone who sets out to trick the world is sure to find people who will be happy to be tricked, and the most ridiculous idiocies always encounter minds suited to them."

Can America in 2009 be better described?  You may be surprised, then, that the above was written by Antoine Arnauld and Pierre Nicole, French philosophers and theologians in the introduction of their 1662 textbook on logic, or as they subtitled their work, "The Art of Thinking."

In other words, our crisis is not new.  It is as old as the mind of man.  But until we recognize and attack the true source of our current problems, we cannot and will not solve them – not the economy, not energy, not healthcare.

Frustrated thinkers in a blind culture

If you've read this far, then you, like me, have probably felt intensely frustrated by the last few years of political and social discourse.  You have probably tried in vain, like so many of us, to reach others with common sense and an appeal to American foundational principles – and felt confused, frustrated, and eventually demotivated by your inability to get others to see the obvious.

As a one-time teacher of graduate-level mathematical logic, I have long had a passion for rhetorical analysis – picking apart speeches and interviews, looking beyond the feel-goodisms and asking probing questions that try to reach the heart of an issue, beyond the bland pronouncements typically spewed by politicians.

But such probing and logical analysis are jaw-droppingly absent from our culture – both in the media and the masses.  What we have today is a people who will believe anything.  And a media that, ignorantly or intentionally, echoes a general public's complete inability to pursue truth – indeed, that reinforces a complete aversion to it, in favor of the pursuit of emotionalism and sensationalism.

A new Renaissance

What we need to get America back on track – what is needed for any healthy representative republic – is a public that:

• Intently seeks truth, and can recognize and reject propaganda and manipulation
• Uses the tools of common sense, sound reasoning, and historical experience to make wise judgments
• Demands the same standards from their leaders and the media.

I am not a politician or a policy wonk.  I don't thrive on pondering how to restructure the health care industry, or how to craft the best stimulus bill.  But I am a thinker, an analyst, and a teacher.  And I know as certainly as I breathe that what we need right now is a new Renaissance in critical thinking skills.  The conservative cause desperately needs a supporting movement that seeks to teach the basic skills of right thinking to a wrong-thinking public – a supporting cast of teachers, writers, media members and analysts, who will work diligently to repair the foundation of correct thought upon which conservative political leaders and policymakers can build.

Passing 40 years in age – and reflecting on what that really means – can do wonders for one's clarity of mind and perspective.  I have been interested in politics since my mid 20's.  I've followed the issues, voted, and written letters to my Congressmen for almost 20 years.  But I'm tired of shouting from the sidelines.  It's time to join the fight in earnest.  Whatever talents each of us have graciously been given, we can no longer afford to squander them in interested but idle observation.  We need to use them to advance what is right and true, energetically and diligently.  My passion is to teach the principles of right thinking, to both young and old.  If yours is the same, or if you see the need for such a movement, I'd love to hear from you.

Coming next:
- An Epidemic of Wrong Thinking
- Principles of Right Thinking
- Creating a Right-Thinking Public

This is a blog about thinking.  Not just any kind of thinking, but thinking of a very rare and valuable sort.  That is, this is a blog about Right Thinking.  It is my firm belief that public discussions and debates today are stuck in eternal bickering and petty rhetorical gamesmanship because there is a gaping hole -- a shocking, jaw-dropping, drive-a-semi-through-it sized hole -- in the ability of the average American to think clearly and critically.  To state it a different way, Americans don't know what to think because Americans don't know how to think.

There are a million columns and blogs that provide a daily forum for discussion focused on "the issues":  energy, Iraq, the economy, ad infinitum.  But even the best of these will never achieve their aim -- to break the deadlock of opinion and move America toward better solutions -- as long as their readers do not truly and deeply understand how to read and watch media sources critically, how to think soundly, and how to clearly define the set of values upon which they form their opinions and base their actions.

What we need, and what this blog intends to present, is a discussion focused not on the issues, but on the process of thinking about the issues.  It will construct and pursue a tripartite definition of "right thinking":

1. Truth -- Get the facts right, and get the right facts.
2. Sound reasoning -- Meticulous analysis of what can and cannot be concluded from an argument.
3. Values -- Planning for action based on a conscious examination and choice of worldview and set of values.

We will examine many of the same topics being discussed in issue-based forums -- but we will use the back-and-forth discussion going on in the media as examples for illuminating the concepts of right thinking... both good examples, and probably more often than not, bad examples.

So if this sounds interesting to you, bookmark this blog and come back again to see more in-depth analysis, techniques, and tools to put yourself on the road to RIGHT THINKING.